NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TULN UCF
Points 70.0 79.7
Total Points   149.7
Points From 2-Pointers 28.8 36.7
Points From 3-Pointers 19.4 25.5
Points From Free Throws 21.7 17.5
Shooting TULN UCF
Field Goals Made 20.9 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 50.9 62.3
Field Goal % 41.0% 43.1%
2 Pointers Made 14.4 18.4
2 Pointers Attempted 32.1 38.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 48.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.5 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 18.8 24.2
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 35.1%
Free Throws Made 21.7 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 30.4 25.5
Free Throw % 71.6% 68.6%
Ball Control TULN UCF
Rebounds 31.3 43.2
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 5.2 14.0
Turnovers 12.4 10.5
Blocked Shots 3.1 6.3
Steals 6.0 7.8
Fouls 16.2 19.6

Playing Style Advantage: Tulane

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TULN UCF
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 78.4
% of Possessions with TULN UCF
2 Point Attempt 38.9% 42.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 26.9%
Player Fouled 26.1% 21.6%
Turnover 16.5% 14.0%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 8.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken TULN UCF
Shot Blocked 10.3% 6.2%
Offensive Rebound 15.1% 34.9%