NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring L-MD MSM
Points 62.1 75.2
Total Points   137.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.1 44.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.7 20.4
Points From Free Throws 10.3 10.8
Shooting L-MD MSM
Field Goals Made 22.5 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 55.4
Field Goal % 39.7% 52.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 22.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.8 36.9
2 Point Shooting % 43.5% 59.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 6.8
3 Pointers Attempted 20.8 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 33.2% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 10.3 10.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.0 15.0
Free Throw % 64.1% 71.9%
Ball Control L-MD MSM
Rebounds 31.4 34.7
Rebounds - Defensive 22.0 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 9.4 7.1
Turnovers 12.0 11.1
Blocked Shots 1.6 4.3
Steals 7.5 6.5
Fouls 13.0 13.3

Playing Style Advantage: Mt St Marys

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats L-MD MSM
Total Possessions 69.0
Effective Scoring Chances 66.4 65.0
% of Possessions with L-MD MSM
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 48.1%
3 Point Attempt 26.0% 24.2%
Player Fouled 19.2% 18.8%
Turnover 17.4% 16.1%
Opponent Steal 9.4% 10.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken L-MD MSM
Shot Blocked 7.8% 2.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 24.4%