NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT MTST
Points 76.8 73.9
Total Points   150.7
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 38.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.8 21.8
Points From Free Throws 14.8 13.5
Shooting MONT MTST
Field Goals Made 27.5 26.6
Field Goals Attempted 55.1 56.5
Field Goal % 50.0% 47.0%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 19.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 37.6
2 Point Shooting % 58.1% 51.4%
3 Pointers Made 6.9 7.3
3 Pointers Attempted 19.6 19.0
3 Point Shooting % 35.4% 38.4%
Free Throws Made 14.8 13.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.4 18.6
Free Throw % 80.1% 72.4%
Ball Control MONT MTST
Rebounds 33.3 29.1
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 22.7
Rebounds - Offensive 6.9 6.3
Turnovers 10.4 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.2
Steals 4.1 6.6
Fouls 15.5 16.0

Playing Style Advantage: Montana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT MTST
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 66.3 67.5
% of Possessions with MONT MTST
2 Point Attempt 45.7% 48.6%
3 Point Attempt 25.2% 24.5%
Player Fouled 23.0% 22.2%
Turnover 14.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT MTST
Shot Blocked 4.0% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 23.2% 19.4%