NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT ORE
Points 70.1 80.0
Total Points   150.1
Points From 2-Pointers 33.5 46.1
Points From 3-Pointers 24.6 17.4
Points From Free Throws 11.9 16.5
Shooting MONT ORE
Field Goals Made 25.0 28.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.4 58.0
Field Goal % 44.3% 49.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.8 23.1
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 41.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.0% 55.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 23.5 16.6
3 Point Shooting % 34.9% 34.8%
Free Throws Made 11.9 16.5
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 22.7
Free Throw % 80.1% 72.9%
Ball Control MONT ORE
Rebounds 29.3 36.0
Rebounds - Defensive 23.0 26.3
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 9.7
Turnovers 10.4 7.0
Blocked Shots 2.5 4.0
Steals 3.3 6.4
Fouls 16.0 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Montana

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT ORE
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 64.9 71.6
% of Possessions with MONT ORE
2 Point Attempt 42.8% 51.9%
3 Point Attempt 30.6% 20.9%
Player Fouled 19.6% 23.2%
Turnover 15.0% 10.2%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 4.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT ORE
Shot Blocked 7.0% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 19.4% 29.7%