NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT USM
Points 74.2 68.7
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 35.8 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 25.1 15.0
Points From Free Throws 13.3 16.0
Shooting MONT USM
Field Goals Made 26.3 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 58.1 56.5
Field Goal % 45.2% 42.1%
2 Pointers Made 17.9 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 35.3 42.0
2 Point Shooting % 50.7% 44.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.4 5.0
3 Pointers Attempted 22.8 14.6
3 Point Shooting % 36.7% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 13.3 16.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.6 22.7
Free Throw % 80.1% 70.5%
Ball Control MONT USM
Rebounds 34.7 35.1
Rebounds - Defensive 27.0 25.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.5
Turnovers 9.7 8.7
Blocked Shots 2.4 4.4
Steals 5.0 5.9
Fouls 14.8 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Montana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT USM
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.5 70.4
% of Possessions with MONT USM
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 52.4%
3 Point Attempt 28.8% 18.2%
Player Fouled 21.2% 21.2%
Turnover 13.9% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.5% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT USM
Shot Blocked 7.9% 4.3%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 26.1%