NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONT CSUS
Points 74.7 66.5
Total Points   141.2
Points From 2-Pointers 39.1 35.3
Points From 3-Pointers 22.9 17.8
Points From Free Throws 12.6 13.4
Shooting MONT CSUS
Field Goals Made 27.2 23.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.8 55.1
Field Goal % 50.5% 42.8%
2 Pointers Made 19.6 17.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.6 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 60.0% 47.7%
3 Pointers Made 7.6 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 21.2 18.1
3 Point Shooting % 36.1% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 12.6 13.4
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 18.8
Free Throw % 80.1% 71.7%
Ball Control MONT CSUS
Rebounds 29.2 33.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 6.1 11.3
Turnovers 8.7 10.0
Blocked Shots 3.0 2.6
Steals 4.7 4.6
Fouls 14.1 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONT CSUS
Total Possessions 65.7
Effective Scoring Chances 63.1 67.0
% of Possessions with MONT CSUS
2 Point Attempt 44.8% 47.3%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 23.2%
Player Fouled 22.5% 21.5%
Turnover 13.2% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 7.0% 7.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONT CSUS
Shot Blocked 4.8% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.5% 32.8%