NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IOWA MSU
Points 72.8 79.5
Total Points   152.3
Points From 2-Pointers 37.4 43.6
Points From 3-Pointers 20.4 22.1
Points From Free Throws 14.9 13.8
Shooting IOWA MSU
Field Goals Made 25.5 29.2
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 61.7
Field Goal % 44.1% 47.3%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 21.8
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 43.2
2 Point Shooting % 49.5% 50.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 20.1 18.5
3 Point Shooting % 33.9% 39.7%
Free Throws Made 14.9 13.8
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 19.1
Free Throw % 77.4% 72.5%
Ball Control IOWA MSU
Rebounds 32.1 37.7
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 7.9 11.1
Turnovers 9.6 8.9
Blocked Shots 3.7 3.7
Steals 4.7 6.3
Fouls 14.2 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IOWA MSU
Total Possessions 70.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 73.1
% of Possessions with IOWA MSU
2 Point Attempt 47.1% 51.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 22.2%
Player Fouled 21.4% 20.0%
Turnover 13.6% 12.5%
Opponent Steal 8.8% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken IOWA MSU
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 22.9% 31.5%