NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMES NCCU
Points 64.4 72.5
Total Points   136.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.2 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 15.6 19.4
Points From Free Throws 14.6 17.4
Shooting UMES NCCU
Field Goals Made 22.3 24.3
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 54.2
Field Goal % 39.4% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 17.1 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 36.1 34.3
2 Point Shooting % 47.3% 51.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 6.5
3 Pointers Attempted 20.4 20.0
3 Point Shooting % 25.5% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 14.6 17.4
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 25.3
Free Throw % 71.8% 69.0%
Ball Control UMES NCCU
Rebounds 34.5 37.5
Rebounds - Defensive 23.7 26.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.8 10.8
Turnovers 11.1 10.7
Blocked Shots 2.8 2.2
Steals 4.9 6.0
Fouls 16.8 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland ES

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMES NCCU
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 69.6 70.0
% of Possessions with UMES NCCU
2 Point Attempt 44.3% 41.9%
3 Point Attempt 25.0% 24.4%
Player Fouled 22.2% 24.0%
Turnover 15.9% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMES NCCU
Shot Blocked 4.0% 4.9%
Offensive Rebound 28.9% 31.4%