NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMES CONN
Points 46.2 88.4
Total Points   134.6
Points From 2-Pointers 24.2 44.3
Points From 3-Pointers 10.6 25.8
Points From Free Throws 11.3 18.2
Shooting UMES CONN
Field Goals Made 15.7 30.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.8 56.9
Field Goal % 27.6% 54.1%
2 Pointers Made 12.1 22.1
2 Pointers Attempted 41.4 32.3
2 Point Shooting % 29.3% 68.6%
3 Pointers Made 3.5 8.6
3 Pointers Attempted 15.4 24.6
3 Point Shooting % 23.0% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 11.3 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 15.8 24.3
Free Throw % 71.8% 75.1%
Ball Control UMES CONN
Rebounds 24.9 47.2
Rebounds - Defensive 16.7 34.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 13.0
Turnovers 11.0 8.6
Blocked Shots 1.7 7.0
Steals 4.7 6.1
Fouls 16.4 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMES CONN
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 65.2 72.4
% of Possessions with UMES CONN
2 Point Attempt 52.4% 39.5%
3 Point Attempt 19.5% 30.1%
Player Fouled 19.9% 24.1%
Turnover 16.2% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 7.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMES CONN
Shot Blocked 12.4% 3.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 43.6%