NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UMES LONG
Points 57.4 65.7
Total Points   123.1
Points From 2-Pointers 28.9 23.3
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 29.8
Points From Free Throws 8.8 12.6
Shooting UMES LONG
Field Goals Made 21.0 21.6
Field Goals Attempted 57.5 54.9
Field Goal % 36.6% 39.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 11.6
2 Pointers Attempted 32.8 26.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 44.6%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 9.9
3 Pointers Attempted 24.7 28.8
3 Point Shooting % 26.6% 34.6%
Free Throws Made 8.8 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 14.0 18.4
Free Throw % 62.8% 68.2%
Ball Control UMES LONG
Rebounds 37.3 38.5
Rebounds - Defensive 28.5 30.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 8.0
Turnovers 13.8 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.4
Steals 6.5 6.9
Fouls 16.5 13.6

Playing Style Advantage: Maryland ES

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UMES LONG
Total Possessions 71.7
Effective Scoring Chances 66.8 66.3
% of Possessions with UMES LONG
2 Point Attempt 40.2% 32.2%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 35.5%
Player Fouled 19.0% 23.0%
Turnover 19.2% 18.7%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 9.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken UMES LONG
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 22.4% 21.9%