NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MONM PITT
Points 62.6 81.7
Total Points   144.3
Points From 2-Pointers 31.4 31.8
Points From 3-Pointers 19.2 34.9
Points From Free Throws 12.1 15.0
Shooting MONM PITT
Field Goals Made 22.1 27.5
Field Goals Attempted 57.7 60.6
Field Goal % 38.3% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 15.7 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 35.6 31.0
2 Point Shooting % 44.1% 51.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.4 11.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.1 29.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.0% 39.3%
Free Throws Made 12.1 15.0
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 20.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 73.0%
Ball Control MONM PITT
Rebounds 32.5 41.2
Rebounds - Defensive 23.5 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 12.6
Turnovers 9.8 7.3
Blocked Shots 2.9 5.7
Steals 4.4 5.5
Fouls 15.0 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Pittsburgh

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MONM PITT
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 73.2
% of Possessions with MONM PITT
2 Point Attempt 45.0% 38.0%
3 Point Attempt 27.9% 36.2%
Player Fouled 19.2% 22.1%
Turnover 14.4% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 8.0% 6.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MONM PITT
Shot Blocked 9.6% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 23.8% 34.9%