NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE PENN
Points 82.2 69.9
Total Points   152.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.7 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 36.1 27.1
Points From Free Throws 11.4 10.0
Shooting STJOE PENN
Field Goals Made 29.4 25.4
Field Goals Attempted 60.5 60.2
Field Goal % 48.5% 42.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 28.5 33.0
2 Point Shooting % 61.0% 49.6%
3 Pointers Made 12.0 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 32.1 27.2
3 Point Shooting % 37.5% 33.2%
Free Throws Made 11.4 10.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.9 14.3
Free Throw % 71.9% 70.2%
Ball Control STJOE PENN
Rebounds 36.3 34.2
Rebounds - Defensive 27.3 24.7
Rebounds - Offensive 9.0 9.6
Turnovers 8.2 10.1
Blocked Shots 3.4 2.1
Steals 5.7 5.2
Fouls 11.7 12.9

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE PENN
Total Possessions 69.5
Effective Scoring Chances 70.3 68.9
% of Possessions with STJOE PENN
2 Point Attempt 35.9% 41.0%
3 Point Attempt 40.4% 33.8%
Player Fouled 18.5% 16.8%
Turnover 11.8% 14.6%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE PENN
Shot Blocked 3.5% 5.7%
Offensive Rebound 26.7% 25.9%