NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring STJOE L-IL
Points 70.5 70.5
Total Points   141.0
Points From 2-Pointers 30.6 33.5
Points From 3-Pointers 25.8 24.8
Points From Free Throws 14.1 12.1
Shooting STJOE L-IL
Field Goals Made 23.9 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 57.9 58.3
Field Goal % 41.3% 43.0%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 16.8
2 Pointers Attempted 32.9 33.5
2 Point Shooting % 46.5% 50.1%
3 Pointers Made 8.6 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 24.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.5% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 14.1 12.1
Free Throws Attempted 19.6 17.9
Free Throw % 71.9% 67.6%
Ball Control STJOE L-IL
Rebounds 35.5 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.7 27.6
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 9.4
Turnovers 11.3 11.9
Blocked Shots 4.7 5.9
Steals 6.8 7.0
Fouls 14.1 16.8

Playing Style Advantage: St Josephs

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats STJOE L-IL
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.0 68.9
% of Possessions with STJOE L-IL
2 Point Attempt 39.8% 40.4%
3 Point Attempt 30.3% 30.0%
Player Fouled 23.6% 19.7%
Turnover 15.8% 16.7%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 9.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken STJOE L-IL
Shot Blocked 10.4% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.3% 26.2%