NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MRST
Points 50.3 68.4
Total Points   118.7
Points From 2-Pointers 24.4 34.0
Points From 3-Pointers 18.5 23.5
Points From Free Throws 7.4 10.9
Shooting MRST
Field Goals Made 18.4 24.8
Field Goals Attempted 48.7 53.5
Field Goal % 37.7% 46.4%
2 Pointers Made 12.2 17.0
2 Pointers Attempted 27.2 33.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.8% 50.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.8
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 28.7% 39.9%
Free Throws Made 7.4 10.9
Free Throws Attempted 12.3 15.0
Free Throw % 60.7% 72.8%
Ball Control MRST
Rebounds 29.1 34.6
Rebounds - Defensive 22.7 26.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.3 8.0
Turnovers 15.0 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.9 2.5
Steals 5.8 6.7
Fouls 13.3 12.7

Playing Style Advantage:

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MRST
Total Possessions 65.3
Effective Scoring Chances 56.7 62.7
% of Possessions with MRST
2 Point Attempt 37.5% 45.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.5% 26.3%
Player Fouled 19.5% 20.3%
Turnover 23.0% 16.3%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 8.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken MRST
Shot Blocked 4.7% 6.1%
Offensive Rebound 19.3% 26.2%