NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV UCSB
Points 72.2 75.4
Total Points   147.7
Points From 2-Pointers 35.1 43.3
Points From 3-Pointers 24.5 16.2
Points From Free Throws 12.6 15.9
Shooting UCRV UCSB
Field Goals Made 25.7 27.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.8 51.8
Field Goal % 41.6% 52.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.6 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 36.8 36.8
2 Point Shooting % 47.8% 58.8%
3 Pointers Made 8.2 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 15.0
3 Point Shooting % 32.6% 36.0%
Free Throws Made 12.6 15.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 21.2
Free Throw % 71.1% 75.0%
Ball Control UCRV UCSB
Rebounds 31.9 34.9
Rebounds - Defensive 22.2 29.1
Rebounds - Offensive 9.8 5.8
Turnovers 7.4 10.9
Blocked Shots 1.2 2.5
Steals 5.5 3.4
Fouls 16.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: UCSB

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV UCSB
Total Possessions 70.1
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 65.0
% of Possessions with UCRV UCSB
2 Point Attempt 45.5% 48.2%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 19.7%
Player Fouled 21.3% 23.2%
Turnover 10.5% 15.6%
Opponent Steal 4.9% 7.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV UCSB
Shot Blocked 4.9% 2.0%
Offensive Rebound 25.1% 20.7%