NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring UCRV HAW
Points 67.6 75.3
Total Points   142.9
Points From 2-Pointers 37.3 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 17.7 22.3
Points From Free Throws 12.6 15.2
Shooting UCRV HAW
Field Goals Made 24.6 26.3
Field Goals Attempted 59.7 51.8
Field Goal % 41.1% 50.8%
2 Pointers Made 18.7 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.8 31.5
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 59.8%
3 Pointers Made 5.9 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 18.9 20.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 36.8%
Free Throws Made 12.6 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 17.7 21.0
Free Throw % 71.1% 72.5%
Ball Control UCRV HAW
Rebounds 31.7 35.3
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 6.0
Turnovers 7.8 10.7
Blocked Shots 1.1 2.2
Steals 5.0 2.8
Fouls 16.9 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: Hawaii

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats UCRV HAW
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 70.4 64.8
% of Possessions with UCRV HAW
2 Point Attempt 51.6% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 23.9% 26.7%
Player Fouled 22.2% 24.2%
Turnover 11.2% 15.4%
Opponent Steal 4.1% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken UCRV HAW
Shot Blocked 4.3% 1.8%
Offensive Rebound 22.7% 20.5%