NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND MSU
Points 66.4 68.8
Total Points   135.2
Points From 2-Pointers 33.7 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 13.6 17.5
Points From Free Throws 19.1 15.4
Shooting IND MSU
Field Goals Made 21.4 23.8
Field Goals Attempted 52.9 55.6
Field Goal % 40.5% 42.7%
2 Pointers Made 16.9 17.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.8 37.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 47.6%
3 Pointers Made 4.5 5.8
3 Pointers Attempted 15.0 18.0
3 Point Shooting % 30.2% 32.5%
Free Throws Made 19.1 15.4
Free Throws Attempted 28.7 21.7
Free Throw % 66.4% 71.2%
Ball Control IND MSU
Rebounds 33.6 38.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 8.9 10.5
Turnovers 9.2 11.1
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.0
Steals 5.2 4.1
Fouls 16.6 20.2

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND MSU
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 69.4 69.2
% of Possessions with IND MSU
2 Point Attempt 47.0% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 18.7% 22.1%
Player Fouled 28.9% 23.8%
Turnover 13.2% 15.9%
Opponent Steal 5.8% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND MSU
Shot Blocked 9.2% 5.9%
Offensive Rebound 24.1% 29.8%