NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND MSU
Points 64.8 71.0
Total Points   135.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.6 35.9
Points From 3-Pointers 16.0 22.5
Points From Free Throws 12.2 12.6
Shooting IND MSU
Field Goals Made 23.6 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 53.3 61.5
Field Goal % 44.3% 41.4%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 18.0
2 Pointers Attempted 36.3 40.4
2 Point Shooting % 50.4% 44.5%
3 Pointers Made 5.3 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 21.1
3 Point Shooting % 31.2% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 12.2 12.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 17.4
Free Throw % 65.9% 72.5%
Ball Control IND MSU
Rebounds 34.9 36.6
Rebounds - Defensive 27.2 25.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 11.2
Turnovers 11.9 8.0
Blocked Shots 3.4 3.5
Steals 3.8 7.7
Fouls 14.1 15.7

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND MSU
Total Possessions 68.7
Effective Scoring Chances 64.6 71.9
% of Possessions with IND MSU
2 Point Attempt 46.6% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 21.9% 25.9%
Player Fouled 22.9% 20.5%
Turnover 17.3% 11.7%
Opponent Steal 11.2% 5.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND MSU
Shot Blocked 5.7% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 23.4% 29.2%