NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring IND MD
Points 65.4 66.2
Total Points   131.6
Points From 2-Pointers 39.6 29.9
Points From 3-Pointers 12.1 20.1
Points From Free Throws 13.7 16.2
Shooting IND MD
Field Goals Made 23.8 21.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.4 58.3
Field Goal % 44.6% 37.1%
2 Pointers Made 19.8 14.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.7 34.7
2 Point Shooting % 49.9% 43.0%
3 Pointers Made 4.0 6.7
3 Pointers Attempted 13.7 23.6
3 Point Shooting % 29.5% 28.4%
Free Throws Made 13.7 16.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.8 22.2
Free Throw % 65.9% 73.1%
Ball Control IND MD
Rebounds 36.7 36.5
Rebounds - Defensive 28.2 24.9
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 11.6
Turnovers 11.9 9.2
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.8
Steals 4.2 6.7
Fouls 15.8 17.0

Playing Style Advantage: Indiana

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats IND MD
Total Possessions 69.3
Effective Scoring Chances 66.0 71.7
% of Possessions with IND MD
2 Point Attempt 50.0% 42.1%
3 Point Attempt 17.2% 28.6%
Player Fouled 24.5% 22.8%
Turnover 17.1% 13.2%
Opponent Steal 9.7% 6.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken IND MD
Shot Blocked 6.6% 7.5%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 29.1%