NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TCU OKST
Points 78.7 69.9
Total Points   148.5
Points From 2-Pointers 47.0 34.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.4 21.2
Points From Free Throws 13.3 14.5
Shooting TCU OKST
Field Goals Made 29.6 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 53.4
Field Goal % 48.0% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 23.5 17.1
2 Pointers Attempted 45.3 31.3
2 Point Shooting % 51.9% 54.5%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.4 22.1
3 Point Shooting % 37.2% 32.0%
Free Throws Made 13.3 14.5
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 20.4
Free Throw % 72.7% 71.2%
Ball Control TCU OKST
Rebounds 36.4 30.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.7 23.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.7 7.7
Turnovers 10.5 14.0
Blocked Shots 3.9 2.9
Steals 9.6 5.6
Fouls 15.3 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Oklahoma St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TCU OKST
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.3 65.8
% of Possessions with TCU OKST
2 Point Attempt 53.3% 38.5%
3 Point Attempt 19.4% 27.1%
Player Fouled 20.0% 21.2%
Turnover 14.5% 19.4%
Opponent Steal 7.7% 13.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken TCU OKST
Shot Blocked 5.6% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 33.6% 23.8%