NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring TCU ARK
Points 79.2 75.7
Total Points   154.9
Points From 2-Pointers 41.4 39.8
Points From 3-Pointers 17.4 15.4
Points From Free Throws 20.4 20.6
Shooting TCU ARK
Field Goals Made 26.5 25.0
Field Goals Attempted 61.7 53.4
Field Goal % 43.0% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.7 19.9
2 Pointers Attempted 45.6 37.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.4% 53.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.8 5.1
3 Pointers Attempted 16.1 16.3
3 Point Shooting % 36.0% 31.3%
Free Throws Made 20.4 20.6
Free Throws Attempted 28.1 26.9
Free Throw % 72.7% 76.5%
Ball Control TCU ARK
Rebounds 38.1 32.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.0 26.0
Rebounds - Offensive 13.1 6.9
Turnovers 10.8 13.4
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.6
Steals 7.6 5.7
Fouls 19.1 17.7

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas

Expected Effect: +0.6 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats TCU ARK
Total Possessions 76.0
Effective Scoring Chances 78.3 69.5
% of Possessions with TCU ARK
2 Point Attempt 49.9% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 17.6% 19.4%
Player Fouled 23.3% 25.2%
Turnover 14.1% 17.6%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 9.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken TCU ARK
Shot Blocked 10.7% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 33.4% 21.6%