NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST ALCN
Points 71.5 74.2
Total Points   145.7
Points From 2-Pointers 31.2 37.6
Points From 3-Pointers 27.8 18.2
Points From Free Throws 12.5 18.4
Shooting ALST ALCN
Field Goals Made 24.8 24.9
Field Goals Attempted 63.2 56.3
Field Goal % 39.3% 44.1%
2 Pointers Made 15.6 18.8
2 Pointers Attempted 33.1 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 47.2% 48.1%
3 Pointers Made 9.3 6.1
3 Pointers Attempted 30.1 17.3
3 Point Shooting % 30.7% 35.2%
Free Throws Made 12.5 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 17.3 25.6
Free Throw % 72.4% 72.2%
Ball Control ALST ALCN
Rebounds 35.0 41.1
Rebounds - Defensive 23.4 29.3
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 11.8
Turnovers 8.7 11.2
Blocked Shots 5.0 2.3
Steals 6.6 4.9
Fouls 16.8 13.8

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST ALCN
Total Possessions 71.1
Effective Scoring Chances 74.1 71.7
% of Possessions with ALST ALCN
2 Point Attempt 39.5% 46.0%
3 Point Attempt 36.0% 20.3%
Player Fouled 19.4% 23.7%
Turnover 12.2% 15.8%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST ALCN
Shot Blocked 4.2% 8.1%
Offensive Rebound 28.4% 33.5%