NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST BSU
Points 55.6 80.9
Total Points   136.5
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 31.7
Points From 3-Pointers 15.7 28.8
Points From Free Throws 10.8 20.4
Shooting ALST BSU
Field Goals Made 19.8 25.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 54.7
Field Goal % 32.7% 46.5%
2 Pointers Made 14.6 15.9
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 28.4
2 Point Shooting % 38.4% 55.7%
3 Pointers Made 5.2 9.6
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 26.3
3 Point Shooting % 23.3% 36.6%
Free Throws Made 10.8 20.4
Free Throws Attempted 14.9 27.4
Free Throw % 72.4% 74.3%
Ball Control ALST BSU
Rebounds 29.7 45.9
Rebounds - Defensive 21.3 34.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.4 11.8
Turnovers 9.5 10.7
Blocked Shots 4.2 3.6
Steals 6.0 4.7
Fouls 18.0 13.1

Playing Style Advantage: Boise St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST BSU
Total Possessions 70.3
Effective Scoring Chances 69.2 71.4
% of Possessions with ALST BSU
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 34.0%
3 Point Attempt 28.1% 31.4%
Player Fouled 18.7% 25.6%
Turnover 13.5% 15.2%
Opponent Steal 6.7% 8.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST BSU
Shot Blocked 6.7% 7.0%
Offensive Rebound 19.7% 35.6%