NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSUS SCU
Points 62.4 77.0
Total Points   139.4
Points From 2-Pointers 29.1 42.0
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 21.7
Points From Free Throws 13.7 13.3
Shooting CSUS SCU
Field Goals Made 21.1 28.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 55.8
Field Goal % 38.4% 50.6%
2 Pointers Made 14.5 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 31.8 35.0
2 Point Shooting % 45.7% 59.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 7.2
3 Pointers Attempted 23.1 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 28.3% 34.9%
Free Throws Made 13.7 13.3
Free Throws Attempted 19.1 19.1
Free Throw % 71.7% 69.6%
Ball Control CSUS SCU
Rebounds 31.0 36.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.8 26.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 10.2
Turnovers 11.2 10.1
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.0
Steals 5.0 5.1
Fouls 16.2 15.5

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSUS SCU
Total Possessions 67.9
Effective Scoring Chances 67.0 68.0
% of Possessions with CSUS SCU
2 Point Attempt 40.1% 44.4%
3 Point Attempt 29.1% 26.3%
Player Fouled 22.8% 23.9%
Turnover 16.5% 14.9%
Opponent Steal 7.5% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSUS SCU
Shot Blocked 5.5% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 27.9% 32.9%