NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST WKU
Points 65.2 79.6
Total Points   144.8
Points From 2-Pointers 30.5 37.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.4 23.8
Points From Free Throws 12.3 18.0
Shooting ALST WKU
Field Goals Made 22.7 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 66.7 58.5
Field Goal % 34.1% 45.8%
2 Pointers Made 15.3 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 39.0% 53.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.5 7.9
3 Pointers Attempted 27.6 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 27.1% 34.4%
Free Throws Made 12.3 18.0
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 24.8
Free Throw % 72.4% 72.7%
Ball Control ALST WKU
Rebounds 35.8 45.5
Rebounds - Defensive 25.4 35.7
Rebounds - Offensive 10.4 9.8
Turnovers 10.4 13.4
Blocked Shots 5.5 4.2
Steals 7.6 5.8
Fouls 18.0 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST WKU
Total Possessions 76.8
Effective Scoring Chances 76.8 73.2
% of Possessions with ALST WKU
2 Point Attempt 44.0% 40.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.0% 26.0%
Player Fouled 18.4% 23.4%
Turnover 13.6% 17.4%
Opponent Steal 7.6% 9.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST WKU
Shot Blocked 7.4% 8.4%
Offensive Rebound 22.6% 27.8%