NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST SOU
Points 61.8 65.9
Total Points   127.7
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 28.6
Points From 3-Pointers 18.7 22.1
Points From Free Throws 15.6 15.2
Shooting ALST SOU
Field Goals Made 20.0 21.7
Field Goals Attempted 58.5 52.1
Field Goal % 34.1% 41.6%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 14.3
2 Pointers Attempted 35.5 29.7
2 Point Shooting % 38.8% 48.3%
3 Pointers Made 6.2 7.4
3 Pointers Attempted 23.0 22.4
3 Point Shooting % 27.0% 32.8%
Free Throws Made 15.6 15.2
Free Throws Attempted 21.6 23.3
Free Throw % 72.4% 65.3%
Ball Control ALST SOU
Rebounds 37.5 38.8
Rebounds - Defensive 26.1 30.0
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 8.8
Turnovers 11.6 14.2
Blocked Shots 3.9 5.0
Steals 6.7 5.9
Fouls 17.3 16.1

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST SOU
Total Possessions 71.8
Effective Scoring Chances 71.5 66.4
% of Possessions with ALST SOU
2 Point Attempt 41.7% 36.1%
3 Point Attempt 27.1% 27.3%
Player Fouled 22.4% 24.1%
Turnover 16.2% 19.8%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 9.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST SOU
Shot Blocked 9.8% 6.8%
Offensive Rebound 27.5% 25.3%