NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CSUS SUU
Points 70.0 72.5
Total Points   142.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.2 40.1
Points From 3-Pointers 18.1 17.6
Points From Free Throws 11.7 14.8
Shooting CSUS SUU
Field Goals Made 26.1 25.9
Field Goals Attempted 57.6 55.3
Field Goal % 45.4% 46.8%
2 Pointers Made 20.1 20.0
2 Pointers Attempted 39.1 35.7
2 Point Shooting % 51.3% 56.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.0 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 18.5 19.6
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 29.9%
Free Throws Made 11.7 14.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.3 20.7
Free Throw % 71.7% 71.3%
Ball Control CSUS SUU
Rebounds 37.2 29.5
Rebounds - Defensive 24.6 21.4
Rebounds - Offensive 12.5 8.1
Turnovers 12.8 9.2
Blocked Shots 2.7 3.1
Steals 4.9 6.4
Fouls 17.1 14.2

Playing Style Advantage: Sac State

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CSUS SUU
Total Possessions 68.9
Effective Scoring Chances 68.6 67.8
% of Possessions with CSUS SUU
2 Point Attempt 47.4% 45.7%
3 Point Attempt 22.3% 25.1%
Player Fouled 20.5% 24.7%
Turnover 18.5% 13.4%
Opponent Steal 9.3% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CSUS SUU
Shot Blocked 5.6% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 36.9% 24.8%