NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring ALST KSU
Points 56.4 76.6
Total Points   132.9
Points From 2-Pointers 26.8 30.1
Points From 3-Pointers 17.0 24.9
Points From Free Throws 12.6 21.5
Shooting ALST KSU
Field Goals Made 19.1 23.4
Field Goals Attempted 66.7 51.1
Field Goal % 28.6% 45.7%
2 Pointers Made 13.4 15.1
2 Pointers Attempted 42.7 26.7
2 Point Shooting % 31.4% 56.4%
3 Pointers Made 5.7 8.3
3 Pointers Attempted 24.0 24.4
3 Point Shooting % 23.6% 34.1%
Free Throws Made 12.6 21.5
Free Throws Attempted 17.4 29.9
Free Throw % 72.4% 71.9%
Ball Control ALST KSU
Rebounds 34.1 47.8
Rebounds - Defensive 21.4 36.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 11.0
Turnovers 8.9 14.3
Blocked Shots 4.5 5.3
Steals 8.6 4.4
Fouls 19.7 13.5

Playing Style Advantage: Alabama St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats ALST KSU
Total Possessions 72.9
Effective Scoring Chances 76.8 69.6
% of Possessions with ALST KSU
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 31.2%
3 Point Attempt 27.3% 28.4%
Player Fouled 18.5% 27.0%
Turnover 12.2% 19.6%
Opponent Steal 6.0% 11.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken ALST KSU
Shot Blocked 10.6% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.7% 34.0%