NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GTWN DUKE
Points 67.6 87.7
Total Points   155.3
Points From 2-Pointers 33.4 46.0
Points From 3-Pointers 21.1 25.1
Points From Free Throws 13.1 16.6
Shooting GTWN DUKE
Field Goals Made 23.7 31.4
Field Goals Attempted 56.5 56.3
Field Goal % 42.0% 55.8%
2 Pointers Made 16.7 23.0
2 Pointers Attempted 35.1 35.5
2 Point Shooting % 47.6% 64.8%
3 Pointers Made 7.0 8.4
3 Pointers Attempted 21.5 20.8
3 Point Shooting % 32.7% 40.3%
Free Throws Made 13.1 16.6
Free Throws Attempted 18.3 23.1
Free Throw % 72.0% 71.6%
Ball Control GTWN DUKE
Rebounds 28.9 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 18.6 25.0
Rebounds - Offensive 10.3 9.9
Turnovers 10.6 8.0
Blocked Shots 3.6 3.9
Steals 3.9 7.1
Fouls 14.8 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Georgetown

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GTWN DUKE
Total Possessions 68.0
Effective Scoring Chances 67.7 69.9
% of Possessions with GTWN DUKE
2 Point Attempt 43.9% 44.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.9% 26.2%
Player Fouled 21.2% 21.7%
Turnover 15.6% 11.8%
Opponent Steal 10.4% 5.8%
Odds Per Shot Taken GTWN DUKE
Shot Blocked 7.0% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.2% 34.8%