NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring GTWN XAV
Points 74.8 86.1
Total Points   160.8
Points From 2-Pointers 36.5 47.1
Points From 3-Pointers 23.2 20.8
Points From Free Throws 15.0 18.2
Shooting GTWN XAV
Field Goals Made 26.0 30.5
Field Goals Attempted 60.4 57.9
Field Goal % 43.1% 52.6%
2 Pointers Made 18.3 23.5
2 Pointers Attempted 37.9 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 60.2%
3 Pointers Made 7.7 6.9
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 18.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.4% 36.7%
Free Throws Made 15.0 18.2
Free Throws Attempted 20.9 24.0
Free Throw % 72.0% 75.8%
Ball Control GTWN XAV
Rebounds 32.0 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.6 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 10.0
Turnovers 10.2 9.8
Blocked Shots 3.9 3.5
Steals 4.8 6.8
Fouls 16.7 15.2

Playing Style Advantage: Xavier

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats GTWN XAV
Total Possessions 72.1
Effective Scoring Chances 73.2 72.2
% of Possessions with GTWN XAV
2 Point Attempt 44.7% 46.7%
3 Point Attempt 26.5% 22.5%
Player Fouled 21.1% 23.1%
Turnover 14.2% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 9.5% 6.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken GTWN XAV
Shot Blocked 6.1% 6.5%
Offensive Rebound 30.3% 32.6%