NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA LOU
Points 80.3 71.8
Total Points   152.1
Points From 2-Pointers 38.3 37.7
Points From 3-Pointers 29.9 21.3
Points From Free Throws 12.0 12.7
Shooting MIA LOU
Field Goals Made 29.1 26.0
Field Goals Attempted 59.1 59.7
Field Goal % 49.3% 43.5%
2 Pointers Made 19.1 18.9
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 57.3% 51.5%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 7.1
3 Pointers Attempted 25.7 23.1
3 Point Shooting % 38.9% 30.9%
Free Throws Made 12.0 12.7
Free Throws Attempted 16.8 17.2
Free Throw % 71.6% 74.2%
Ball Control MIA LOU
Rebounds 34.6 34.0
Rebounds - Defensive 26.4 24.4
Rebounds - Offensive 8.2 9.5
Turnovers 11.1 11.6
Blocked Shots 3.2 2.6
Steals 7.7 5.9
Fouls 13.2 14.0

Playing Style Advantage: Miami

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA LOU
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 69.5 70.3
% of Possessions with MIA LOU
2 Point Attempt 40.9% 44.0%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 27.7%
Player Fouled 19.3% 18.3%
Turnover 15.3% 16.0%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 10.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA LOU
Shot Blocked 4.5% 5.6%
Offensive Rebound 25.0% 26.5%