NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA FLA
Points 77.4 86.1
Total Points   163.5
Points From 2-Pointers 40.8 41.5
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 31.0
Points From Free Throws 12.8 13.6
Shooting MIA FLA
Field Goals Made 28.4 31.1
Field Goals Attempted 64.9 68.4
Field Goal % 43.7% 45.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.4 20.8
2 Pointers Attempted 42.4 38.9
2 Point Shooting % 48.2% 53.4%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 10.3
3 Pointers Attempted 22.5 29.5
3 Point Shooting % 35.3% 35.0%
Free Throws Made 12.8 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 18.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 73.2%
Ball Control MIA FLA
Rebounds 34.9 43.9
Rebounds - Defensive 25.6 29.5
Rebounds - Offensive 9.3 14.4
Turnovers 10.0 9.6
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.4
Steals 6.6 6.8
Fouls 12.8 14.4

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA FLA
Total Possessions 75.6
Effective Scoring Chances 74.8 80.4
% of Possessions with MIA FLA
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 42.7%
3 Point Attempt 25.9% 32.4%
Player Fouled 19.0% 16.9%
Turnover 13.2% 12.7%
Opponent Steal 9.0% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA FLA
Shot Blocked 8.0% 4.4%
Offensive Rebound 23.9% 35.9%