NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring MIA UCF
Points 68.0 73.3
Total Points   141.3
Points From 2-Pointers 28.7 34.3
Points From 3-Pointers 26.3 27.1
Points From Free Throws 13.1 11.9
Shooting MIA UCF
Field Goals Made 23.1 26.2
Field Goals Attempted 56.6 62.5
Field Goal % 40.8% 41.9%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 17.2
2 Pointers Attempted 32.2 35.1
2 Point Shooting % 44.6% 48.9%
3 Pointers Made 8.8 9.0
3 Pointers Attempted 24.5 27.4
3 Point Shooting % 35.8% 32.9%
Free Throws Made 13.1 11.9
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 17.3
Free Throw % 71.6% 68.6%
Ball Control MIA UCF
Rebounds 35.0 40.3
Rebounds - Defensive 26.5 27.5
Rebounds - Offensive 8.5 12.8
Turnovers 12.8 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.8 5.2
Steals 6.0 8.6
Fouls 12.3 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: UCF

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats MIA UCF
Total Possessions 71.6
Effective Scoring Chances 67.3 73.8
% of Possessions with MIA UCF
2 Point Attempt 39.1% 41.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.8% 32.1%
Player Fouled 21.0% 17.2%
Turnover 17.8% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 12.0% 8.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken MIA UCF
Shot Blocked 8.5% 5.0%
Offensive Rebound 23.5% 32.5%