NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU SHSU
Points 67.7 88.2
Total Points   155.9
Points From 2-Pointers 38.9 51.5
Points From 3-Pointers 14.1 22.4
Points From Free Throws 14.7 14.3
Shooting HCU SHSU
Field Goals Made 24.1 33.2
Field Goals Attempted 54.3 65.6
Field Goal % 44.4% 50.7%
2 Pointers Made 19.4 25.8
2 Pointers Attempted 38.4 44.9
2 Point Shooting % 50.6% 57.4%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 7.5
3 Pointers Attempted 15.9 20.7
3 Point Shooting % 29.6% 36.1%
Free Throws Made 14.7 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 23.0 19.7
Free Throw % 64.1% 72.3%
Ball Control HCU SHSU
Rebounds 31.2 39.2
Rebounds - Defensive 22.4 26.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.8 13.1
Turnovers 13.7 8.5
Blocked Shots 2.0 3.1
Steals 4.3 7.7
Fouls 13.9 16.5

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU SHSU
Total Possessions 73.5
Effective Scoring Chances 68.7 78.1
% of Possessions with HCU SHSU
2 Point Attempt 46.0% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 19.0% 23.7%
Player Fouled 22.4% 18.9%
Turnover 18.6% 11.5%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 5.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU SHSU
Shot Blocked 4.7% 3.8%
Offensive Rebound 25.2% 36.9%