NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN BUT
Points 83.3 62.5
Total Points   145.9
Points From 2-Pointers 47.4 30.9
Points From 3-Pointers 24.9 18.6
Points From Free Throws 11.1 13.1
Shooting CONN BUT
Field Goals Made 32.0 21.6
Field Goals Attempted 63.6 59.1
Field Goal % 50.3% 36.6%
2 Pointers Made 23.7 15.4
2 Pointers Attempted 39.4 39.0
2 Point Shooting % 60.1% 39.5%
3 Pointers Made 8.3 6.2
3 Pointers Attempted 24.2 20.1
3 Point Shooting % 34.3% 30.8%
Free Throws Made 11.1 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 14.7 16.3
Free Throw % 75.1% 80.1%
Ball Control CONN BUT
Rebounds 42.1 29.8
Rebounds - Defensive 30.7 22.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.4 7.6
Turnovers 8.1 9.5
Blocked Shots 6.1 2.4
Steals 6.4 4.4
Fouls 13.7 12.4

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN BUT
Total Possessions 69.6
Effective Scoring Chances 72.9 67.8
% of Possessions with CONN BUT
2 Point Attempt 48.1% 49.0%
3 Point Attempt 29.5% 25.2%
Player Fouled 17.8% 19.7%
Turnover 11.7% 13.6%
Opponent Steal 6.3% 9.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN BUT
Shot Blocked 4.2% 9.7%
Offensive Rebound 34.0% 19.9%