NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN HOU
Points 66.1 62.6
Total Points   128.7
Points From 2-Pointers 27.5 32.8
Points From 3-Pointers 22.1 16.8
Points From Free Throws 16.5 13.0
Shooting CONN HOU
Field Goals Made 21.1 22.0
Field Goals Attempted 51.8 61.0
Field Goal % 40.8% 36.1%
2 Pointers Made 13.8 16.4
2 Pointers Attempted 28.6 42.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.1% 38.6%
3 Pointers Made 7.4 5.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.2 18.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.7% 30.2%
Free Throws Made 16.5 13.0
Free Throws Attempted 21.9 18.3
Free Throw % 75.1% 71.1%
Ball Control CONN HOU
Rebounds 40.0 35.0
Rebounds - Defensive 28.7 22.1
Rebounds - Offensive 11.3 12.9
Turnovers 11.4 6.5
Blocked Shots 3.7 4.4
Steals 3.7 7.0
Fouls 13.5 15.8

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.8 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN HOU
Total Possessions 65.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.4 71.8
% of Possessions with CONN HOU
2 Point Attempt 36.4% 53.2%
3 Point Attempt 29.6% 23.3%
Player Fouled 24.2% 20.7%
Turnover 17.4% 9.9%
Opponent Steal 10.7% 5.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN HOU
Shot Blocked 7.3% 7.4%
Offensive Rebound 33.9% 31.1%