NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU ISU
Points 57.4 82.2
Total Points   139.6
Points From 2-Pointers 24.1 42.0
Points From 3-Pointers 20.3 22.9
Points From Free Throws 13.1 17.2
Shooting NIU ISU
Field Goals Made 18.8 28.7
Field Goals Attempted 49.0 60.1
Field Goal % 38.3% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 12.0 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 25.6 41.1
2 Point Shooting % 47.0% 51.2%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 23.4 19.1
3 Point Shooting % 28.8% 40.1%
Free Throws Made 13.1 17.2
Free Throws Attempted 19.5 24.3
Free Throw % 67.4% 70.8%
Ball Control NIU ISU
Rebounds 31.7 37.4
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 8.6 12.2
Turnovers 16.8 7.6
Blocked Shots 3.8 3.1
Steals 3.7 10.2
Fouls 16.5 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU ISU
Total Possessions 69.9
Effective Scoring Chances 61.7 74.6
% of Possessions with NIU ISU
2 Point Attempt 32.1% 49.1%
3 Point Attempt 29.4% 22.8%
Player Fouled 23.1% 23.6%
Turnover 24.0% 10.8%
Opponent Steal 14.5% 5.3%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU ISU
Shot Blocked 5.3% 7.9%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 34.6%