NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring NIU SMC
Points 57.4 81.8
Total Points   139.2
Points From 2-Pointers 28.6 41.9
Points From 3-Pointers 15.1 25.6
Points From Free Throws 13.7 14.3
Shooting NIU SMC
Field Goals Made 19.3 29.5
Field Goals Attempted 50.8 61.0
Field Goal % 38.0% 48.3%
2 Pointers Made 14.3 21.0
2 Pointers Attempted 34.8 39.1
2 Point Shooting % 41.1% 53.6%
3 Pointers Made 5.0 8.5
3 Pointers Attempted 16.0 21.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.4% 39.0%
Free Throws Made 13.7 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 20.3 21.4
Free Throw % 67.4% 67.1%
Ball Control NIU SMC
Rebounds 26.7 43.7
Rebounds - Defensive 20.9 29.2
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 14.4
Turnovers 11.0 8.1
Blocked Shots 3.5 3.6
Steals 3.5 6.9
Fouls 14.5 17.2

Playing Style Advantage: N Illinois

Expected Effect: +0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats NIU SMC
Total Possessions 67.8
Effective Scoring Chances 62.6 74.2
% of Possessions with NIU SMC
2 Point Attempt 46.4% 46.8%
3 Point Attempt 21.3% 26.1%
Player Fouled 25.4% 21.4%
Turnover 16.2% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 10.2% 5.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken NIU SMC
Shot Blocked 6.0% 6.9%
Offensive Rebound 16.5% 40.8%