NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN FLA
Points 85.4 69.0
Total Points   154.4
Points From 2-Pointers 45.4 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 21.9 16.5
Points From Free Throws 18.0 16.9
Shooting CONN FLA
Field Goals Made 30.0 23.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 62.9
Field Goal % 49.0% 37.1%
2 Pointers Made 22.7 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 40.2 44.6
2 Point Shooting % 56.5% 40.0%
3 Pointers Made 7.3 5.5
3 Pointers Attempted 21.1 18.3
3 Point Shooting % 34.7% 30.1%
Free Throws Made 18.0 16.9
Free Throws Attempted 24.0 23.0
Free Throw % 75.1% 73.2%
Ball Control CONN FLA
Rebounds 40.8 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 29.9 23.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.9 12.6
Turnovers 8.0 8.7
Blocked Shots 5.0 4.2
Steals 5.5 5.0
Fouls 15.9 16.2

Playing Style Advantage: Florida

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN FLA
Total Possessions 72.4
Effective Scoring Chances 75.3 76.3
% of Possessions with CONN FLA
2 Point Attempt 47.3% 51.3%
3 Point Attempt 24.8% 21.0%
Player Fouled 22.3% 21.9%
Turnover 11.1% 11.9%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN FLA
Shot Blocked 6.9% 8.3%
Offensive Rebound 31.7% 29.6%