NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU SMU
Points 64.0 95.7
Total Points   159.7
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 59.3
Points From 3-Pointers 14.2 22.8
Points From Free Throws 13.6 13.6
Shooting HCU SMU
Field Goals Made 22.8 37.3
Field Goals Attempted 58.4 69.4
Field Goal % 39.1% 53.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 29.7
2 Pointers Attempted 42.9 48.0
2 Point Shooting % 42.2% 61.8%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 7.6
3 Pointers Attempted 15.5 21.4
3 Point Shooting % 30.4% 35.5%
Free Throws Made 13.6 13.6
Free Throws Attempted 21.2 19.8
Free Throw % 64.1% 68.6%
Ball Control HCU SMU
Rebounds 31.1 43.5
Rebounds - Defensive 20.0 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 11.2 15.7
Turnovers 14.3 7.6
Blocked Shots 2.6 7.8
Steals 4.6 9.8
Fouls 12.0 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: S Methodist

Expected Effect: +0.7 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU SMU
Total Possessions 73.7
Effective Scoring Chances 70.6 81.9
% of Possessions with HCU SMU
2 Point Attempt 48.7% 53.0%
3 Point Attempt 17.6% 23.6%
Player Fouled 20.3% 16.3%
Turnover 19.3% 10.3%
Opponent Steal 13.3% 6.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU SMU
Shot Blocked 11.4% 4.6%
Offensive Rebound 28.7% 44.1%