NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring CONN USC
Points 80.3 61.7
Total Points   142.0
Points From 2-Pointers 34.9 32.4
Points From 3-Pointers 29.9 16.2
Points From Free Throws 15.5 13.1
Shooting CONN USC
Field Goals Made 27.4 21.6
Field Goals Attempted 59.8 57.8
Field Goal % 45.8% 37.4%
2 Pointers Made 17.4 16.2
2 Pointers Attempted 33.4 40.3
2 Point Shooting % 52.2% 40.2%
3 Pointers Made 10.0 5.4
3 Pointers Attempted 26.4 17.5
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 31.0%
Free Throws Made 15.5 13.1
Free Throws Attempted 20.6 18.9
Free Throw % 75.1% 69.5%
Ball Control CONN USC
Rebounds 41.9 32.0
Rebounds - Defensive 29.7 22.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.2 9.2
Turnovers 9.6 10.3
Blocked Shots 5.1 4.2
Steals 5.7 5.8
Fouls 14.8 14.8

Playing Style Advantage: Connecticut

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats CONN USC
Total Possessions 69.7
Effective Scoring Chances 72.3 68.6
% of Possessions with CONN USC
2 Point Attempt 39.9% 49.8%
3 Point Attempt 31.6% 21.6%
Player Fouled 21.2% 21.3%
Turnover 13.8% 14.7%
Opponent Steal 8.3% 8.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken CONN USC
Shot Blocked 7.4% 8.8%
Offensive Rebound 34.9% 23.7%