NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring HCU MICH
Points 67.5 92.8
Total Points   160.3
Points From 2-Pointers 41.2 53.6
Points From 3-Pointers 14.0 24.7
Points From Free Throws 12.4 14.4
Shooting HCU MICH
Field Goals Made 25.2 35.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.4 63.3
Field Goal % 41.1% 55.4%
2 Pointers Made 20.6 26.8
2 Pointers Attempted 46.4 41.7
2 Point Shooting % 44.3% 64.3%
3 Pointers Made 4.7 8.2
3 Pointers Attempted 15.0 21.6
3 Point Shooting % 31.0% 38.2%
Free Throws Made 12.4 14.4
Free Throws Attempted 19.3 20.4
Free Throw % 64.1% 70.8%
Ball Control HCU MICH
Rebounds 30.4 40.9
Rebounds - Defensive 20.3 29.5
Rebounds - Offensive 10.1 11.4
Turnovers 11.3 9.1
Blocked Shots 2.0 5.5
Steals 5.5 5.4
Fouls 14.1 14.3

Playing Style Advantage: Hsn Christian

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats HCU MICH
Total Possessions 73.8
Effective Scoring Chances 72.6 76.1
% of Possessions with HCU MICH
2 Point Attempt 53.9% 48.5%
3 Point Attempt 17.5% 25.1%
Player Fouled 19.4% 19.0%
Turnover 15.3% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 7.3% 7.5%
Odds Per Shot Taken HCU MICH
Shot Blocked 8.8% 3.3%
Offensive Rebound 25.5% 35.9%