NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMCC VAN
Points 67.4 72.4
Total Points   139.9
Points From 2-Pointers 36.0 36.4
Points From 3-Pointers 18.2 17.6
Points From Free Throws 13.2 18.4
Shooting AMCC VAN
Field Goals Made 24.1 24.1
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 53.9
Field Goal % 39.3% 44.7%
2 Pointers Made 18.0 18.2
2 Pointers Attempted 42.1 32.6
2 Point Shooting % 42.7% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 6.1 5.9
3 Pointers Attempted 19.2 21.3
3 Point Shooting % 31.6% 27.5%
Free Throws Made 13.2 18.4
Free Throws Attempted 18.5 26.0
Free Throw % 71.6% 70.7%
Ball Control AMCC VAN
Rebounds 37.1 37.0
Rebounds - Defensive 25.5 28.2
Rebounds - Offensive 11.6 8.8
Turnovers 10.4 10.2
Blocked Shots 2.1 4.3
Steals 5.7 5.8
Fouls 19.1 13.4

Playing Style Advantage: Vanderbilt

Expected Effect: +0.4 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMCC VAN
Total Possessions 71.3
Effective Scoring Chances 72.5 69.9
% of Possessions with AMCC VAN
2 Point Attempt 49.8% 40.3%
3 Point Attempt 22.7% 26.3%
Player Fouled 18.9% 26.8%
Turnover 14.5% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.2% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMCC VAN
Shot Blocked 8.1% 3.5%
Offensive Rebound 29.1% 25.6%