NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring AMCC SMU
Points 65.2 77.6
Total Points   142.8
Points From 2-Pointers 34.5 41.1
Points From 3-Pointers 15.3 19.0
Points From Free Throws 15.3 17.5
Shooting AMCC SMU
Field Goals Made 22.4 26.9
Field Goals Attempted 60.2 57.3
Field Goal % 37.1% 46.9%
2 Pointers Made 17.3 20.5
2 Pointers Attempted 43.1 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 40.0% 54.9%
3 Pointers Made 5.1 6.3
3 Pointers Attempted 17.1 19.9
3 Point Shooting % 29.9% 31.9%
Free Throws Made 15.3 17.5
Free Throws Attempted 21.4 25.6
Free Throw % 71.6% 68.6%
Ball Control AMCC SMU
Rebounds 35.8 39.7
Rebounds - Defensive 23.1 27.8
Rebounds - Offensive 12.7 11.9
Turnovers 11.7 10.8
Blocked Shots 3.7 6.4
Steals 7.2 7.5
Fouls 17.1 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: S Methodist

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats AMCC SMU
Total Possessions 71.9
Effective Scoring Chances 72.9 73.0
% of Possessions with AMCC SMU
2 Point Attempt 49.5% 43.9%
3 Point Attempt 19.6% 23.3%
Player Fouled 21.2% 23.7%
Turnover 16.3% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 10.5% 10.0%
Odds Per Shot Taken AMCC SMU
Shot Blocked 11.3% 6.4%
Offensive Rebound 31.4% 34.0%