NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDST ISU
Points 61.0 77.5
Total Points   138.4
Points From 2-Pointers 25.6 39.0
Points From 3-Pointers 23.8 26.6
Points From Free Throws 11.5 12.0
Shooting SDST ISU
Field Goals Made 20.7 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 50.1 59.5
Field Goal % 41.4% 47.6%
2 Pointers Made 12.8 19.5
2 Pointers Attempted 25.1 36.6
2 Point Shooting % 50.9% 53.3%
3 Pointers Made 7.9 8.9
3 Pointers Attempted 25.0 22.9
3 Point Shooting % 31.8% 38.6%
Free Throws Made 11.5 12.0
Free Throws Attempted 15.7 16.9
Free Throw % 73.3% 70.8%
Ball Control SDST ISU
Rebounds 31.0 34.4
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 24.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.8 9.8
Turnovers 15.5 8.3
Blocked Shots 2.3 3.8
Steals 4.7 10.4
Fouls 13.8 14.9

Playing Style Advantage: Iowa St

Expected Effect: +0.2 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDST ISU
Total Possessions 68.5
Effective Scoring Chances 59.9 69.9
% of Possessions with SDST ISU
2 Point Attempt 32.7% 46.2%
3 Point Attempt 32.5% 29.0%
Player Fouled 21.8% 20.1%
Turnover 22.6% 12.2%
Opponent Steal 15.1% 6.9%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDST ISU
Shot Blocked 6.5% 4.8%
Offensive Rebound 21.7% 28.8%