NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring SDST USC
Points 69.2 78.2
Total Points   147.4
Points From 2-Pointers 28.0 37.0
Points From 3-Pointers 28.9 29.3
Points From Free Throws 12.4 11.8
Shooting SDST USC
Field Goals Made 23.6 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 57.2 59.2
Field Goal % 41.3% 47.8%
2 Pointers Made 14.0 18.5
2 Pointers Attempted 31.6 33.8
2 Point Shooting % 44.2% 54.8%
3 Pointers Made 9.6 9.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.6 25.4
3 Point Shooting % 37.7% 38.5%
Free Throws Made 12.4 11.8
Free Throws Attempted 16.9 17.0
Free Throw % 73.3% 69.5%
Ball Control SDST USC
Rebounds 32.3 36.9
Rebounds - Defensive 24.8 27.9
Rebounds - Offensive 7.6 9.1
Turnovers 12.3 10.6
Blocked Shots 2.3 5.8
Steals 5.4 8.2
Fouls 13.4 15.0

Playing Style Advantage: S Dakota St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats SDST USC
Total Possessions 71.4
Effective Scoring Chances 66.7 69.9
% of Possessions with SDST USC
2 Point Attempt 38.9% 41.5%
3 Point Attempt 31.5% 31.2%
Player Fouled 21.0% 18.8%
Turnover 17.2% 14.8%
Opponent Steal 11.5% 7.6%
Odds Per Shot Taken SDST USC
Shot Blocked 9.8% 4.1%
Offensive Rebound 21.3% 26.8%