NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring INDPU USF
Points 58.3 83.7
Total Points   142.1
Points From 2-Pointers 36.2 38.3
Points From 3-Pointers 8.9 28.3
Points From Free Throws 13.3 17.1
Shooting INDPU USF
Field Goals Made 21.1 28.6
Field Goals Attempted 53.5 55.0
Field Goal % 39.4% 52.0%
2 Pointers Made 18.1 19.1
2 Pointers Attempted 40.7 31.9
2 Point Shooting % 44.5% 60.1%
3 Pointers Made 3.0 9.4
3 Pointers Attempted 12.8 23.2
3 Point Shooting % 23.1% 40.8%
Free Throws Made 13.3 17.1
Free Throws Attempted 18.2 23.6
Free Throw % 72.7% 72.6%
Ball Control INDPU USF
Rebounds 29.3 36.1
Rebounds - Defensive 20.1 25.9
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 10.2
Turnovers 14.4 10.5
Blocked Shots 1.6 3.5
Steals 6.1 7.5
Fouls 17.6 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: IUPUI

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats INDPU USF
Total Possessions 70.4
Effective Scoring Chances 65.1 70.1
% of Possessions with INDPU USF
2 Point Attempt 50.2% 39.2%
3 Point Attempt 15.8% 28.5%
Player Fouled 20.0% 25.1%
Turnover 20.5% 15.0%
Opponent Steal 10.6% 8.7%
Odds Per Shot Taken INDPU USF
Shot Blocked 6.4% 3.0%
Offensive Rebound 26.1% 33.6%