NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA ARST
Points 76.4 84.1
Total Points   160.5
Points From 2-Pointers 42.6 43.1
Points From 3-Pointers 20.5 26.1
Points From Free Throws 13.3 14.9
Shooting USA ARST
Field Goals Made 28.1 30.3
Field Goals Attempted 61.3 64.3
Field Goal % 45.9% 47.1%
2 Pointers Made 21.3 21.6
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 37.4
2 Point Shooting % 48.7% 57.7%
3 Pointers Made 6.8 8.7
3 Pointers Attempted 17.6 26.9
3 Point Shooting % 38.8% 32.3%
Free Throws Made 13.3 14.9
Free Throws Attempted 17.8 21.2
Free Throw % 74.7% 70.2%
Ball Control USA ARST
Rebounds 30.7 42.0
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 28.6
Rebounds - Offensive 6.5 13.4
Turnovers 8.8 9.0
Blocked Shots 3.1 5.5
Steals 5.3 5.1
Fouls 13.7 14.1

Playing Style Advantage: Arkansas St

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA ARST
Total Possessions 73.1
Effective Scoring Chances 70.8 77.5
% of Possessions with USA ARST
2 Point Attempt 53.4% 42.6%
3 Point Attempt 21.5% 30.7%
Player Fouled 19.2% 18.7%
Turnover 12.1% 12.3%
Opponent Steal 6.9% 7.2%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA ARST
Shot Blocked 8.7% 5.2%
Offensive Rebound 18.5% 35.6%