NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring USA ULM
Points 80.4 74.1
Total Points   154.6
Points From 2-Pointers 35.4 43.9
Points From 3-Pointers 30.7 14.5
Points From Free Throws 14.4 15.7
Shooting USA ULM
Field Goals Made 27.9 26.8
Field Goals Attempted 56.0 59.3
Field Goal % 49.8% 45.2%
2 Pointers Made 17.7 21.9
2 Pointers Attempted 30.8 42.5
2 Point Shooting % 57.4% 51.6%
3 Pointers Made 10.2 4.8
3 Pointers Attempted 25.2 16.7
3 Point Shooting % 40.6% 28.9%
Free Throws Made 14.4 15.7
Free Throws Attempted 19.2 23.6
Free Throw % 74.7% 66.8%
Ball Control USA ULM
Rebounds 30.6 37.3
Rebounds - Defensive 24.9 25.1
Rebounds - Offensive 5.8 12.2
Turnovers 10.5 10.3
Blocked Shots 2.6 2.2
Steals 5.3 6.3
Fouls 15.9 15.4

Playing Style Advantage: S Alabama

Expected Effect: Less than 0.1 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats USA ULM
Total Possessions 72.3
Effective Scoring Chances 67.6 74.1
% of Possessions with USA ULM
2 Point Attempt 39.0% 49.7%
3 Point Attempt 31.9% 19.6%
Player Fouled 21.4% 22.0%
Turnover 14.5% 14.3%
Opponent Steal 8.7% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken USA ULM
Shot Blocked 3.8% 4.7%
Offensive Rebound 18.7% 32.9%