NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring KU UK
Points 79.4 82.1
Total Points   161.5
Points From 2-Pointers 44.7 35.6
Points From 3-Pointers 19.7 32.2
Points From Free Throws 15.0 14.3
Shooting KU UK
Field Goals Made 28.9 28.5
Field Goals Attempted 62.9 63.7
Field Goal % 45.9% 44.8%
2 Pointers Made 22.3 17.8
2 Pointers Attempted 43.7 37.9
2 Point Shooting % 51.2% 47.0%
3 Pointers Made 6.6 10.7
3 Pointers Attempted 19.3 25.8
3 Point Shooting % 34.0% 41.6%
Free Throws Made 15.0 14.3
Free Throws Attempted 21.0 18.3
Free Throw % 71.4% 78.2%
Ball Control KU UK
Rebounds 38.0 36.2
Rebounds - Defensive 28.9 28.0
Rebounds - Offensive 9.1 8.2
Turnovers 10.2 9.9
Blocked Shots 3.4 4.7
Steals 6.2 6.6
Fouls 13.6 14.6

Playing Style Advantage: Kentucky

Expected Effect: +0.3 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats KU UK
Total Possessions 76.2
Effective Scoring Chances 75.1 74.5
% of Possessions with KU UK
2 Point Attempt 50.1% 44.2%
3 Point Attempt 22.1% 30.1%
Player Fouled 19.2% 17.9%
Turnover 13.4% 13.0%
Opponent Steal 8.6% 8.1%
Odds Per Shot Taken KU UK
Shot Blocked 7.4% 5.4%
Offensive Rebound 24.5% 22.0%