NOTE: This model has not been backtested for historical accuracy. We publish it in large part to give an idea of stylistic trends that can be expected (fast/slow, one team dominating the boards and the other shooting a lot of threes, etc).

Box Score Projection

Scoring VMI UCD
Points 59.2 80.9
Total Points   140.0
Points From 2-Pointers 32.4 42.4
Points From 3-Pointers 14.8 21.1
Points From Free Throws 11.9 17.3
Shooting VMI UCD
Field Goals Made 21.1 28.3
Field Goals Attempted 54.9 59.0
Field Goal % 38.5% 47.9%
2 Pointers Made 16.2 21.2
2 Pointers Attempted 37.1 38.0
2 Point Shooting % 43.6% 55.9%
3 Pointers Made 4.9 7.0
3 Pointers Attempted 17.7 21.0
3 Point Shooting % 27.9% 33.4%
Free Throws Made 11.9 17.3
Free Throws Attempted 17.0 22.8
Free Throw % 70.4% 76.1%
Ball Control VMI UCD
Rebounds 32.0 38.1
Rebounds - Defensive 24.2 28.4
Rebounds - Offensive 7.8 9.7
Turnovers 17.2 11.3
Blocked Shots 1.9 3.8
Steals 5.5 10.4
Fouls 16.5 15.3

Playing Style Advantage: UC Davis

Expected Effect: +0.5 points
Our simulation model uses tempo-free statistics to project a detailed box score for this game. This analysis also indicates which team (if any) is expected to gain a relative advantage based on the specific matchup of paces and playing styles.

NOTE: Our simulation model assumes a neutral court setting.

Tempo-Free Projection

Possession Stats VMI UCD
Total Possessions 74.9
Effective Scoring Chances 65.6 73.3
% of Possessions with VMI UCD
2 Point Attempt 44.1% 44.5%
3 Point Attempt 21.0% 24.6%
Player Fouled 20.4% 22.1%
Turnover 22.9% 15.1%
Opponent Steal 13.9% 7.4%
Odds Per Shot Taken VMI UCD
Shot Blocked 6.5% 3.6%
Offensive Rebound 21.6% 28.7%